Quarter End – Profit Taking Rife!

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service. Detailed setup available for specific clientele.

• Traders back from Easter holiday – volume set to pick up
• End of Q1 with book squaring in mind across Currencies, Indices and Commodities
• Market timing perhaps in anticipation of a larger move or in to rollover for Q2
• Q2 outlook deemed positive for now after various central banks stimulus are at work
• Dead cat bounce in commodities over? What do we have in store for Q2?
• Will the Fed hike in April / Q2 and then rein in at Q3 and then another hike in Q4?
• How will Oil hold up remains the biggest question

Currencies

Dollar Index Daily

USD/YEN Daily

EUR/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily

AUS/USD Daily

Indices 

SPX Daily

CAC40 Daily

STOXX Daily

DAX Daily

VIX Daily

Commodities 

Platinum Daily

Copper Daily

Oil Daily

Indices Update

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service.

SPX

Daily

FTSE

Daily

CAC40

Daily

STOXX

Daily

Dax

Daily

VIX

Daily

Currencies Update

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service.

Dollar Index

Daily

• More rooms for the dollar to consolidate higher first before another sell off in the making
• Perhaps this is a build up for April rate hike scenario. Dollar index is also showing sign of a potential build up with shorts taking profit ahead of what potentially could be an April rate hike talk by the Fed. Therefore, going forward the USD will remain favorable to break higher – pressure on AUS/USD and NZD/USD will appear in the next few weeks with gold also looking lower.

USD/YEN

Daily

EUR/USD

Daily

GBP/USD

Daily

• Will be aggrassive buyer on a retest of previous low

NZD/USD

Daily

• Further weakness as the USD regained its footing but a retest on the lower channel may offer a decent RR for long

AUS/USD

Daily

• Still trading within the uptrend line but daily RSI is showing sign of bull exhaustion
• Cannot rule out that further upside remain in store but will be aggressive seller at the high

Commodities Update

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service.

Platinum

Daily

• Looking very toppish and will not be surprised to see daily RSI moving lower to ease off from the overbought levels

Copper

Daily

• Technically under pressure to retrace lower – perhaps to find support and test buyers resilience
• Completed the small IHS and now consolidating

Oil

Daily

• Approaching potential sell zone but without a break below the uptrend line, we cannot confirm to take a trade
• We need confirmation from lower time frame of a confirmed break in the market structure
• US Oil inventories data today

 

Indices Update

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service.

SPX

Daily

FTSE

Daily

CAC40

Daily

STOXX

Daily

VIX

 

Weekly

Currencies Update

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service.

Dollar index

Daily

USD/JPY

Daily

EUR/USD

Daily

GBP/USD

Daily

NZD/USD

Daily

AUS/USD

Daily

 

 

Pt/Cu and Crude Daily

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service.

Platinum

Daily

• Should the price retrace, there is a potential inverse head and shoulder set up
• For the IHS to work, price must not breach below $850

Copper

Daily

• RSI is diverging and selling pressure may start to escalate if long bails out on the back of any risk off sentiment
• The smaller IHS has hit target – there is a potential set up for a much larger IHS.

Oil

Daily

• Uninterrupted uptrend line – April meeting is keeping the current rally but a breach below the uptrend line will certainly signal the end of the short covering rally

 

Commodities Bounce Over?

• Short covering rally running out of steam
• Managed money (hedge funds) are fully long with downside risk increasing
• Fundamental and physical market has yet to adjust to higher prices
• Speculators are the driving force behind the recent rally
• Technically, price action will need to see a significant cut in production (to balance supply and demand equilibrium)
• Concern on China hard landing persist as it transition from manufacturing to service based economy
• Dead cat bounce over – fundamental to take back control of price action
• A healthy pullback will ease, perhaps allowing longs to rebuild and reload

Next directional move will determine one of the following factors:

1. Range trading as price fluctuate and consolidate – fundamental picture improving with upside remain limited
2. A retest of a new low but global demand should help minimize the damage as long as Central banks stick with monetary easing and there is a significant cut in production

 

No Hike Priced In – What’s Next?

Currencies

Dollar Index

Weekly

USD/JPY

Weekly

EUR/USD

Weekly

GBP/USD

Daily

NZD/USD

Weekly

Indices

FTSE

Weekly

STOXX

Weekly

CAC40

Weekly

SPX

Daily

Commodities 

Oil

Daily

Copper

Weekly

Platinum

 

Gold Weekly Giving Off Steam

• Overhead selling pressure appeared at the high of $ 1280
• The vertical rally is a result of accumulation of shorts
• Short covering rally may already run out of steam
• Continued persistence at current prices does not bode well
• A pullback to 20 WMA is potentially possible in the weeks to come
• Pullback and reload for next long is a potential medium term strategy
• If price breaks above $ 1283 (previous high) then $ 1350 cannot be rule out
• Dipped lower is a much preferred scenario
• Ideal support comes in at $ 1190 levels and $ 1150 levels but if pullback is vicious then a retest of previous low cannot be rule out
• Fundamentally, sentiment in the precious metal complex could continue to improve on the back of market uncertainty