Risk On
- Asian equities faring better
- China to celebrate WW2 commemoration – government promised stimulus stabilise China stock market above 3000 levels
- Mild positive start to European shares – Overnight flush and pump higher
- Japanese largest whale consider moving from bonds to equity
- Thursday ECB press conference – talk of additional QE?
Risk Off
- Canada refused to admit recession
- Australia poor GDP data surprises some but potentially RBA look to do more easing
- Lagarde admit spillover of market turmoil exist
| China away for 2 days – Global equities to recover in their absence? All eyes on ECB press conference – US Jobless claim and NFP data that determine Federal Reserve stance
Extra Stimulus has yet to kick in but wary of the build up to Santa rally |
Multi Time Frame Analysis
USD index
Daily
4 hour
The dollar daily price action shows that it found support at 20 dma and bounced higher. We cannot rule out a test higher from here as the daily ascending triangle formation is still valid. This is despite the fact that the 4 hour chart is showing a slight RSI divergence. Certainly one to keep watch as the market will have Jobless claim data tomorrow and NFP Friday to digest with.
German Bund
Daily
4 hour
With the ECB press conference tomorrow, Bunds price action may stall for a post ECB directional play. We maintain the view that current price action is in support but not ruling out a retest lower again.
Eur/Usd
Daily
4 hour
It remains a possibility that we could see a head and shoulder formation in the Euro but it is a hard one to call as the daily Mas are converging higher for a so called bullish cross over. The price action remains favourable with higher low but currently consolidating. The 4 hour chart is now an ascending wedge formation and with that in mind, we see further risk to retest lower first.
German Dax
Daily
4 hour
Weakness after Europe closes meant that buyers are not confident to hold on their position overnight. We also witness a washout before the US close – extending losses (stop hunting) before price regained higher during Asian trading sessions. After the black Monday we have seen 4 days of recovery followed by 3 days of selling. Has the selling abated pre ECB press conference?
Gold
Daily
4 hour
Gold remains well bid within this rising channel. Daily chart remains bullish as price trade above 20 dma and in a rising trend line. Only a break below will instigate further selling but with the market heavily positioned short, this rally may last despite a stronger dollar. Dips are still being bought here and this could continue until price breaks away from the channel.
Silver
Daily
4 hour
With China away on holiday-will industrial metal suffer from the lack of news? Silver price action remains weak and a retest lower is still possible. Right above, there are various resistances and only a break and close above 20 dma will give us that confidence for higher prices.
The Bullion Times 