Unwavering US Dollar?

Precious Metal Weekly – Unwavering US Dollar?

Last minute talks between Greek officials and its creditors are said to come close to an agreement of sort. Promises were made and the market is positioned for a resolution before the 5^th of June deadline. Eur/Usd is trading higher by the close of the week despite a resilient US dollar index. However, European equities took a big hit after rumour of a resolution has been found was quickly dissolve. If there is any comfort for Greece, a resolution of some sort will be made available so as to avert disaster. The weekend Telegraph review the situation in Greece and the frustration of Mr Barroso who added “I believe that a solution can still be found”. Media focus is on this Wednesday 3^rd June ECB press conference where questions and answers will provide volatility.

At the start of next week, US PMI data is in focus followed by RBA rate statement and inflation report from the Eurozone. Close to the end of the week, we have BOE interest rate decision which is expected to remain as it is and then US initial jobless claims and a Friday data with Eurozone GDP numbers. It is not going to be a dull week but various key economic data that traders need to digest. Having said that, the volatility can provide opportunity but also risks of a bigger trading range. Therefore, do include a good stop loss for risk management purposes.

Our top focus is on the US dollar index which looks ready to roll over and a weaker equity market that look rather exhausted (sure it can be invalidated by super V recovery if dip buying is still around).

Gold Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

Should the US dollar index start to roll over, a corrective rally could finally start. We remain steadfast on our previous statement that gold could embark on a rally to $ 1267 (100 WMA is now at 1263).

Trade: Looking to build on Pullbacks to capture the corrective rally.

Position	Valid Date	Price	Action	Stop Loss	Target	Results
LONG	18th – 22nd   May	1195-1210	Live	1170 (1178)	1233
LONG	25th – 29th May	1185-1200	Live	1170 (1178)	1245 (1267)

20 WMA	50 WMA	100 WMA
1211	1230	1263

Silver Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

The pullback has happened as anticipated and our long trade has been initiated. We are changing our target on Silver and see 17.50 as potential resistance to the upside. Technically, the weekly RSI suggest there are more rooms to the upside and this run up remains a corrective rally. Should we break beyond 17.50 we will be very cautious and look to enter a short positions.

Trade: Pullback is still a buy. Valid for this week only.

Position	Valid Date	Price	Action	Stop Loss	Target	Results
LONG	25th – 29th May	16.60-16.80	Live	16.00	17.50 (17.80)

20 WMA	50 WMA	100 WMA
16.68	17.55	19.06

Platinum Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

A major concern on the weakness over the week as platinum prices plunged below all previous support zones. The next question is – can platinum recover from here and what could be the catalyst? The pullback was more of an impulsive selling with no real interest of short covering or bargain hunting. The 20 WMA previously acted as resistance and current price action should retrace and test it again. However, we are not ruling out a potential selloff to retest previous low of 1086 (even to 1078 – which make the lower BB) before a reversal.

Trade: Buy the pullback valid for the next 2 weeks.

Position	Valid Date	Price	Action	Stop Loss	Target	Results
LONG	18th – 22nd May	1136-1146	Closed	1117	1170 (1185)	-23
LONG	25th – 29th May	1126-1136	Closed	1117	1170	-13

20 WMA	50 WMA	100 WMA
1169	1266	1347

Palladium Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

Our daily commentary already covered our biased view that Palladium is dominated by seller and will continue to do so. The weekly MA are all rolling lower and a retest of the 200 WMA could potentially be the target at 722.

Trade: Side line for now with a bias to the downside.

Position	Valid Date	Price	Action	Stop Loss	Target	Results

20 WMA	50 WMA	100 WMA
778	805	776

This article is written according to the author’s views and by no means indicates investment purpose. Opinions expressed at Sharps Pixley Ltd are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Sharps Pixley Ltd or its management, shareholders, affiliates and subsidiaries. Sharps Pixley Ltd has not verified the accuracy of any claim or statement made by any independent writer and is reserved as their own and Sharps Pixley Ltd is not accountable for their input. Any opinions, research, analysis, prices or other information contained on this website, by Sharps Pixley Ltd, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Sharps Pixley Ltd will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. The data contained on this website is not necessarily real-time or accurate. 

Buckle Up $Dollar – Daily View 29th May

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

Not out of the woods yet and gold seriously need a big push higher to even consider any form of reversal. The price action from yesterday seems to suggest indecision between buyers and sellers but the other indication is that short sellers are wary thus profit taking at 1180 is warranted. The blip higher could just be short covering and nothing else. Meanwhile, only a real change of view regarding the current dollar strength as well as other fundamental news will change the current view.

As mentioned in yesterday’s commentary “We will not rule out a retest lower in the short time frame and should 1183 hold we could see gold trying to advance higher. Failure to hold 1183 then 1178 and 1168 will be the next support.”

Federal Reserve hawkish remark and clear statement by Miss Yellen on an imminent interest rate hike has given dollar bull another lifeline. We continue to question if this is sustainable in the short to medium term. The dollar index could still test higher – possibly a triple top? Our other assumption is that Miss Yellen already knows that GDP result is a rotten apple thus giving dollar sufficient buffer. We will find out soon enough aren’t we? Strap on and remember to keep a tight stop loss.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous high at 1232.31
• DMAs 200 at 1213 / 100 at 1211 / 50 at 1198 and 20 at 1199
• Previous high at 1192.50

Daily Support Levels:

• Previous low at 1180.20
• May low 1170.30

The dip to 16.53 was quickly bought, ending the day with a doji candlestick. Short time frame seems to suggest growing RSI divergence and with the dollar bulls wavering – silver managed to reclaim 16.70 levels again. Just like gold, the white metal is not out of the woods yet and only a solid green day will suggest a reversal. We continue with our view as per below.

A break lower will find support at the following key levels 16.40 -16.60 which is a potential fertile area for longs to build on. On the daily, those levels hold the 50% and 61.8% Fib retracement area which should provide decent support. This also coincides with the rising orange channel line that should keep the run higher intact for now. Note the red AB – CD line could play out in the short medium time frame. To highlight the downside risk, a break below 16.08 will spell big trouble for Silver as it opens up the possibility to retest 15.85 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous daily high at 17.75
• Psychological level at 18.00
• Downtrend line that coincide with 18.00
• 200 ma at 16.88, 100 ma at 16.67, 20 ma at 16.84

Daily Support Levels:

• DMA levels 50 at 16.60
• Fib retracement level 50% at 16.66 and 38.2% at 16.40
• Lower BB at 16.02 (watch BB rising and Converging)

A new low at 1107.8 but it is not over yet. Weakness continues in Platinum with lack of interest from buyers. Sellers remain in control and prospect of recovery remains bleak. However, we will not rule out a sudden change after the release on US GDP and how the US dollar will react to the data. Platinum is reaching an oversold territory but with no pullback, it could very well indicate a potential short covering momentum to push it higher. The RSI has not broken below the range that it has been trading but all that could change soon.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 1177.1
• 100 dma at 1171 / 50 at 1145 and 20 at 1141

Daily Support levels:

• Previous low at 1107.8
• March low at 1086.5

As mentioned in previous commentary “Yesterday price action was an inside day and failure to break and close above 787.1 should allow the bears more room to test lower. Upside continue to be limited as a lower high and lower low is created in this wedge (or bull flag?). The chart remains hard to read but we maintain a semi bearish stance here until we see a breakout. “Sellers remain in control here and a retest of 771.5 could well be underway.

Only a break above 801 will give the bulls the confidence to test higher prices. Current price action is dominated by sellers. We aware that price is range trading in this wedge and a breakout on either side will determine the next direction.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
• 200 dma at 792 / 100 at 779 / 20 at 783
• Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

• DMAs 50 at 771.35
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3

US GDP as Catalyst – Daily View 28th May

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

Dip buying and bargain hunters showed up at 1183 levels and today gold managed to break above 1190. However, gold has a mountain to climb with key resistances that it broke on the impulsive sell off. We will not rule out a retest lower in the short time frame and should 1183 hold we could see gold trying to advance higher. Failure to hold 1183 then 1178 and 1168 will be the next support.

The dollar index goes from strength to strength as the Japanese Yen continue to devalue, stifling any fertile ground for gold price to react higher. Federal Reserve hawkish remark and clear statement by Miss Yellen on an imminent interest rate hike has given dollar bull another lifeline. We continue to question if this is sustainable in the short to medium term. The dollar index could still test higher – possibly a triple top?

All eyes are on US GDP numbers that are due tomorrow and today we may see volatility on the back of US initial jobless claims.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous high at 1232.31
• DMAs 200 at 1214.7 / 100 at 1212.417 / 50 at 1197.74 and 20 at 1200.33
• 13th May low at 1191.17

Daily Support Levels:

• Fib level at 1184.15
• 11th May 1178.78

Buyers are holding up the price at 16.60 to 16.80 levels but we continue to see one more flush lower given the current US dollar strength. The 50% Fib retracement line is playing a great support as well as the 50 DMA at 16.60. Break below that, Silver could both instigate a free fall or a dump and pump depending on what data and how the dollar reacts. We continue to watch how the RSI indicator could give clue to the next move.

A break lower will find support at the following key levels 16.40 -16.60 which is a potential fertile area for longs to build on. On the daily, those levels hold the 50% and 61.8% Fib retracement area which should provide decent support. This also coincides with the rising orange channel line that should keep the run higher intact for now. Note the red AB – CD line could play out in the short medium time frame. To highlight the downside risk, a break below 16.08 will spell big trouble for Silver as it opens up the possibility to retest 15.85 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous daily high at 17.75
• Psychological level at 18.00
• Downtrend line that coincide with 18.00
• 200 ma at 16.93, 100 ma at 16.67, 20 ma at 16.81

Daily Support Levels:

• Several key DMA levels 100 at 16.60
• Fib retracement level 50% at 16.66 and 38.2% at 16.40

Platinum is threading on a thin line as price action is now below all MA and the lack of buyers are a real concern. Support from the green line was not perfect and slightly broken with a low registered at 1114.5. Prospect of any upside seems limited and a break below 1110 should give the bears the ultimate momentum to trigger stops. To alleviate further selling, a strong green candle is needed soon.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 1177.1
• 100 dma at 1174.79 / 50 at 1145.6 and 20 at 1145.64

Daily Support levels:

• May low at 1121.1
• April low at 1117
• March low 1113.7

Yesterday price action was an inside day and failure to break and close above 787.1 should allow the bears more room to test lower. Upside continue to be limited as a lower high and lower low is created in this wedge (or bull flag?). The chart remains hard to read but we maintain a semi bearish stance here until we see a breakout.

Only a break above 801 will give the bulls the confidence to test higher prices. Current price action is dominated by sellers.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
• 200 dma at 793.96 / 100 at 779.84 / 20 at 782.74
• Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

• DMAs 50 at 771.35
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3

Where are the Bargain Hunters? Daily View 27th May

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

With the lack of US related data today, traders could see more price action on Thursday and Friday with the release of US Pending home sales data but most importantly the US GDP (Q1). Other data include US Core personal consumption and Chicago PMI which will give traders food for thought. As mentioned in yesterday’s commentary – “Once again gold failed to find any decent support and a move lower now to 1191 -1193 levels is possible today. Should selling escalate, we will look for 1184 as last line of support to go long. Dips are still buying opportunity in the short to medium term as long as gold is trading above 1178.” However, we will not rule out the possibility to break below 1178 with BB line at 1170 as support.

Keep a close eye on the daily RSI that has been range trading since April 2015. A bounced from its current low could allow bargain hunters to buy into dips and a grind higher could happen. Next movement in gold is very much data and dollar dependant. We continue to build long between 1185 – 1195 levels with a tight stop.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous high at 1232.31
• DMAs 200 at 1214.7 / 100 at 1212.417 / 50 at 1197.74 and 20 at 1200.33
• 13th May low at 1191.17

Daily Support Levels:

• Fib level at 1184.15
• 11th May 1178.78

Afraid there is not much to add on the following update but in the short term, we continue to see lower prices and Silver need to find support as mentioned in previous commentary (see below).

A break lower will find support at the following key levels 16.40 -16.60 which is a potential fertile area for longs to build on. On the daily, those levels hold the 50% and 61.8% Fib retracement area which should provide decent support. This also coincides with the rising orange channel line that should keep the run higher intact for now. Note the red AB – CD line could play out in the short medium time frame.

To highlight the downside risk, a break below 16.08 will spell big trouble for Silver as it opens up the possibility to retest 15.85 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous daily high at 17.75
• Psychological level at 18.00
• Downtrend line that coincide with 18.00
• 200 ma at 16.93

Daily Support Levels:

• Several key DMA levels 100 at 16.67 / 20 at 16.78
• Fib retracement level 50% at 16.66 and 38.2% at 16.40

Are we close to one more low before a meaningful reversal? The current setup seems possible with a great risk reward as long as 1117 holds. Buyers need to flock in to snap up platinum at a possible bargain price this week in order to maintain our semi-bullish outlook to test 1165 – 1170 levels again. We maintain a semi-bullish outlook and would still prefer to build long around the key support areas with tight stop.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 1177.1
• 100 dma at 1174.79 / 50 at 1145.6 and 20 at 1145.64

Daily Support levels:

• May low at 1121.1
• April low at 1117
• March low 1113.7

A bearish engulfing candle from yesterday could well suggest further downside is in store. Palladium continues to trade with lower high and lower low ever since the start of May. We will stick with our previous outlook and could well add to our short positions at 786 – 791 levels. Palladium bull has certainly showed exhaustion and we are very much veered to a bearish stance. A small short position has been initiated at 780 with stops at 793.5 to target 762 and 755 support zones.

Only a break above 801 will give the bulls the confidence to test higher prices. Current price action is dominated by sellers.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
• 200 dma at 793.96 / 100 at 779.84 / 20 at 782.74
• Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

• DMAs 50 at 771.35
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3

Weaker Metals as Dollar Rampage – Technical View 26th May

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

This pullback has certainly raised many questions after an impulsive move higher followed by failure at key resistance level before an impulsive move lower. With the US dollar resuming its current course, precious metals will be subject to further selling pressure and continue to find support. We highlighted several green zones which were visited many times for support and resistance. Once again gold failed to find any decent support and a move lower now to 1191 -1193 levels is possible today. Should selling escalate, we will look for 1184 as last line of support to go long. Dips are still buying opportunity in the short to medium term as long as gold is trading above 1178.

Also, we are keeping a close eye on the daily RSI that has been range trading since April 2015. As highlighted on the above chart, a low is imminent either this week or next but we remain cautious on how the current US dollar rally play out. Potentially looking to long gold between 1185 – 1195 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous high at 1232.31
• DMAs 200 at 1214.7 / 100 at 1212.417 / 50 at 1197.74 and 20 at 1200.33

Daily Support Levels:

• Fib level at 1193.26 and 1184.15
• 13th May low at 1191.17
• 11th May 1178.78

Silver continue to pullback and at the moment, the price action is a healthy one. In the short term, we continue to see lower prices and Silver need to find support as mentioned in previous commentary (see below).

A break lower will find support at the following key levels 16.40 -16.60 which is a potential fertile area for longs to build on. On the daily, those levels hold the 50% and 61.8% Fib retracement area which should provide decent support. This also coincides with the rising orange channel line that should keep the run higher intact for now. Note the red AB – CD line could play out in the short medium time frame.

To highlight the downside risk, a break below 16.08 will spell big trouble for Silver as it opens up the possibility to retest 15.85 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous daily high at 17.75
• Psychological level at 18.00
• Downtrend line that coincide with 18.00
• 200 ma at 16.93

Daily Support Levels:

• Several key DMA levels 100 at 16.67 / 20 at 16.78
• Fib retracement level 50% at 16.66 and 38.2% at 16.40

Platinum continue its pullback and we are monitoring how the Bollinger band is converging with its low BB line at 1120 as of the time of writing. In addition, the RSI is giving a clue to the next possible price action. The daily RSI has been on a rising pattern since April 2015 but upside remains capped at 58.95 levels. Buyers need to flock in to snap up platinum at a possible bargain price this week in order to maintain our semi-bullish outlook to test 1165 – 1170 levels again.

We maintain a semi-bullish outlook and would still prefer to build long if there are any pullbacks – targeting 1137.5 – 1143.5 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 1177.1
• 100 dma at 1174.79 / 50 at 1145.6 and 20 at 1145.64

Daily Support levels:

• Rising orange channel line at 1131.7
• May low at 1121.1

We will stick with our previous outlook and could well add to our short positions at 786 – 791 levels. Palladium bull has certainly showed exhaustion and we are very much veered to a bearish stance. A small short position has been initiated at 780 with stops at 793.5 to target 762 and 755 support zones.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
• 200 dma at 793.96 / 100 at 779.84 / 20 at 782.74
• Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

• DMAs 50 at 771.35
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3

Precious Metal Weekly – US Rate Hike Is Weather Dependant

A few excerpts from Fed Chief Yellen’s speech that is solely her view and none represent those of the FOMC members.

• US economy will pick up in the 2^nd half of 2015
• 1^st half poor data was a statistical blip and due to severe weather conditions and strikes
• June rate hike is out, September rate hike is welcome
• Unemployment and jobless claim data must be scrutinise for any hint of recovery
• No taper tantrum in the equity market – plain sailing for an all-time high
• The market may have priced in the gradual rate hike already
• Dollar kept most of its gain and closed strong for the week
• A rate hike will come – a matter of when not if

As we approach the end of the 1^st half, the dollar index gave up most of the gains made since the start of the year. Current price action managed to retrace higher, sitting on the 50% fib from March high to May low. A higher CPI numbers gave traders the reason to pile back in the dollar, either that or just repositioning since we come to a long weekend followed by the end of the month book squaring.

In this new normal, the 2^nd half of 2015 on the dollar index will remain volatile but we may be in for a good show. With interest rate hike still in store in September (depending on data) and other central banks embarking on QEs, it looks straightforward enough to bet for a strong dollar. However, we felt uneasy at that prospect and will not rule out possible Black Swan Event.

Gold Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

Gold to embark an ambitious rally to $ 1267 is the bold statement we are making and that remain a big potential as we come to the end of May. Our motto remains to buy dips, buy in May and go away with $ 1267 as the maximum target. To achieve that, gold needs to take out previous resistance at $ 1232. On the off chance that $ 1267 is taken out, we envisage possible buying interest to take gold as high as $ 1274 – $ 1288 levels which coincides with previous strong resistance (downtrend line).

Trade: Short stopped out. Looking to build on Pullbacks to capture the corrective rally.

Position	Valid Date	Price	Action	Stop Loss	Target	Results
LONG	18th – 22nd   May	1195-1210	Live	1178	1233
LONG	25th – 29th May	1185-1200	Order Placed	1178	1267

20 WMA	50 WMA	100 WMA
1212	1232	1264

Silver Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

Weekly price action has been rather encouraging after Silver met strong resistance at $ 17.72 area. The pullback that we have called for is in transition and next week we anticipate further consolidation period to build a strong support. Short term supports are $ 16.86 and $ 16.93 levels but we also have the 20 WMA to act potentially as a strong support at $ 16.67. Once again, we repeat that we would build long should we see silver test $ 16.60 – $ 16.80 levels. Should the AB – CD pattern play out, we envisage a potential rally to $ 18.75 with a pinch of salt.

Our long term view on Silver is for another test lower, probably below previous low of 14.03 while the RSI remain higher so as to confirm that the trend has indeed change. Technically, the weekly RSI suggest there are more rooms to the upside and this run up remains a corrective rally.

Trade: Pullback is still a buy cautious and looks to build short if we reach 17.85 – 18.25 area? Valid for this week only.

Position	Valid Date	Price	Action	Stop Loss	Target	Results
LONG	11th – 15th May	17.15	Live	17.25 (16.50)	17.80	+10
LONG	25th – 29th May	16.60-16.80	Order Placed	16.00	17.80

20 WMA	50 WMA	100 WMA
16.67	17.61	19.09

Platinum Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

We want to begin by highlighting the commentary we made last week “The move high and recent price action suggests that this run has legs and could have further potential upside. The first sign is from the breakout of the weekly downtrend line at 1150 levels and we would not be surprise if next week retracement to 1140 – 1150 levels happens. If the support holds, this will further strengthen the case for a more potent bullish move.”

Platinum price action played out pretty much as we envisaged. The 20 WMA at 1177 acted as a magnet and strong resistance. Profit taking and rejection to move higher is normal and this pullback is healthy as long as we begin to see buyers to come in again once prices retest for support.

Important Weekly Resistance Levels are:

• 20 WMA at 1175
• RSI that might hit weekly resistance at 50 (NOTE that Platinum has not managed to break above 50 in 2015!!!). A POTENTIAL BEAR FLAG FORMATION?!

Trade: Buy the pullback valid for the next 2 weeks.

Position	Valid Date	Price	Action	Stop Loss	Target	Results
LONG	18th – 22nd May	1136-1146	Live	1117	1170 (1185)
LONG	25th – 29th May	1126-1136	Order Placed	1117	1170

20 WMA	50 WMA	100 WMA
1175	1272	1350

Palladium Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

Palladium remains a difficult market to trade as last few weeks price action suggest a lower high and lower low. Despite our bullish commentary to buy on pullbacks, one of the positions was stop and the short to medium term outlook has changed to neutral. Instead, we are now looking to build small short positions should we see another attempt higher.

Trade: Side line for now with a bias to the downside.

Position	Valid Date	Price	Action	Stop Loss	Target	Results
LONG	18th – 22nd May	782	Closed	770	820-830	-12

20 WMA	50 WMA	100 WMA
779	806	775

This article is written according to the author’s views and by no means indicates investment purpose. Opinions expressed at Sharps Pixley Ltd are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Sharps Pixley Ltd or its management, shareholders, affiliates and subsidiaries. Sharps Pixley Ltd has not verified the accuracy of any claim or statement made by any independent writer and is reserved as their own and Sharps Pixley Ltd is not accountable for their input. Any opinions, research, analysis, prices or other information contained on this website, by Sharps Pixley Ltd, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Sharps Pixley Ltd will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. The data contained on this website is not necessarily real-time or accurate. 

Dollar Showdown! Daily View 22nd May

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

Without stating the most obvious and complacent price action, buying in Asia time zone seems to indicate a dovish remark by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen. The speculative bet is in place and we sense a short term trap is in place too. What we would expect from a Friday price action is no less than whipsaw hunting stops, both long and shorts. Take caution as the herd mentality is pointing for a weaker dollar after the speech but if price action does not confirm, we could be in a lot of trouble as traders have to hold over the long weekend (mulling over their open positions) which then ensue some sort of panic correction next week.

We are not forecasting that might happen but just painting the mild possibility. Technically, gold is still range trading and only a break above 1232 will allow the bulls to resume upward momentum. We are not discounting that the pullback remains a healthy one as price is still trading above the 20 and 50 dma. Dips are still buying opportunity in the short to medium term as long as gold is trading above 1178.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous high at 1232.31
• DMAs 200 at 1215.8 / 100 at 1212.46

Daily Support Levels:

• 2% 1198.80
• Several key DMA 50 at 1195.94 and 20 at 1201.35

Silver continue to range trade within 16.85-17.35 levels. A break lower will find support and level such as 16.40 -16.60 as a fertile area for longs to build on. On the daily, those levels hold the 50% and 61.8% Fib retracement area which should provide decent support. This also coincides with the rising orange channel line that should keep the run higher intact for now. Note the red AB – CD line could play out in the short medium time frame. On the rare chance it broke higher than a retest of previous high at 17.75 is back in play.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous daily high at 17.75
• Psychological level at 18.00
• Downtrend line that coincide with 18.00

Daily Support Levels:

• Several key DMA levels with 200 at 16.95 / 100 at 16.65 / 20 at 16.74
• Apr Low to May High Fib retracement level at 16.92 / 16.66 / 16.41

A very positive price action in Platinum as a retest at support level of 1144.6 has welcomed bargain hunters to drive the price higher. The test of 20 and 50 dma indicate that upside momentum is still there and sellers are not able to drive prices lower. In addition, a retest on what was previous resistance now support from the downtrend line gave further confidence that a move higher in the short term is possible. We maintain a semi-bullish outlook and would still prefer to build long if there are any pullbacks – targeting 1137.5 – 1143.5 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 1177.1
• 100 dma at 1176.18

Daily Support levels:

• Several DMAs 20 at 1147 / 50 at 1144
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 1155 / 50% at 1148.7

Palladium bull has certainly showed exhaustion and we are very much veered to a bearish stance. A small short position has been initiated at 780 with stops at 793.5 to target 762 and 755 support zones.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
• 200 dma at 794.87 / 100 at 779.93 / 20 at 781.47
• Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

• DMAs 50 at 771.19
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3

Well Timed Pit Stop – Daily View 21st May

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

The Federal Reserve remains transitorily dovish and not ruling out a rate hike in June. It is obvious that it is very unlikely a June rate hike will happen due to drafts of poor economic numbers. The meeting minutes also highlight their concern that pick up in the US economy remain fragile but a rate hike will happen sometime this year. Analysts are pushing it to September as the most likely scenario. The dollar took it rather well despite the dovish remark and we are not ruling out that it has legs to test higher.

With the Bank holiday next week, we expect price volatility to pick up as traders look to position and square their book as we come to end of the month. Next week also host many key economic data and one in particular US GDP set to release on 29^th May. Our take is that the outcome of either Dollar strength or weakness is totally dependent on the outcome from the economic data. This week, we are ending it with speeches from the powerful central banks – presenting Yellen, Draghi and Kuroda.

Gold has yet to find a direction and it may continue to build on support, consolidating between 1200-1210 levels. The impulsive run up expects a healthy pullback but we are slightly concern the pullback is rather impulsive. We also take note that the US dollar also rebounded violently higher and remains as a possible dead cat bounce until invalidated. Price volatility will return as and when economic data is release but we expect the trading range to remain rather tight.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous high at 1232.31
• 61.8% Fib from Jan High to Mar Low at 1245.13
• 23.6% Fib at 1211.60 Mar Low to May High
• DMAs 200 at 1217 / 100 at 1211.98
• Previous low at 1210.80

Daily Support Levels:

• 38.2% 1198.74
• Several key DMA 50 at 1192.92 and 20 at 1198.47

No change after the dovish remark and Silver continue to trade within the range of 16.85-17.35 levels. At the moment, the price action has a heavy top with sellers holding on and we are not ruling out another test lower. A break lower will find support and level such as 16.40 -16.60 as a fertile area for longs to build on. On the daily, those levels hold the 50% and 61.8 Fib retracement area which should provide decent support. This also coincides with the rising orange channel line that should keep the run higher intact for now. Note the red AB – CD line could play out in the short medium time frame.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous daily high at 17.75
• Psychological level at 18.00
• Downtrend line that coincide with 18.00

Daily Support Levels:

• Several key DMA levels with 200 at 17.00 / 100 at 16.62 / 20 at 16.55
• Apr Low to May High Fib retracement level at 16.92 / 16.56 / 16.41

Given that the rebound was weak, we have covered the small long from 1150 at 1156 before FOMC meeting minutes. Meanwhile, we see another pullback to retest lower numbers – possibly 1137 -1143 levels should be an ideal range to build long. Should the price action get to the levels mentioned, we expect the rebound to be impulsive and rally to retest previous high. Upside remains capped by the orange trend line which coincides with the 100 dma that acted as strong resistance. With that in mind, a healthy pullback is required – refuelling the bull to propel higher is certainly a possibility in order to take out the 100 dma.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 1177.1
• 100 dma at 1177.87

Daily Support levels:

• Several DMAs 20 at 1144 / 50 at 1142
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 1155 / 50% at 1148.7

As long as price is above the 50 dma and within the rising channel, the upside bias is still intact (even though we are suspicious that a move lower could happen sooner or later). Price broke and traded below previously mentioned dmas which does favour a run to test for support at the lower end much higher. What was support now resistance at 20, 100 and 200 dma. Break below 770 then expect support to come in at 762 followed by 745 and 755 support zone. Current price action suggest sellers are in control for now and we are considering to short palladium should it retest 780 with stops at (shaded brown zone 790 – 795) and target 756 – 766 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
• 200 dma at 796.31
• Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

• DMAs 100 at 780.76 / 20 at 779.97 and 50 at 772.23
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3

FOMC Dilemma Continues – Daily View 20th May

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

Dollar mini vengeance on its way as we approach FOMC meeting minutes followed by Thursday economic data such as Jobless claims, existing homes sales and Philly Fed index. The data is expected to come in line but any hint of good data; we shall see the stronger dollar to add selling pressure on metals to retrace lower to look for support and this is where the psychological level at 1200 comes in play followed by the 20 and 50 dma (see notes below).

Morning comment made by Feds Evans has further play down any rate hike for this year (more details at forexlive.com). FOMC meeting minutes could remain dovish after several poor economic data. We cannot rule out that the momentum to raise rate remain “transitory” and very much data dependant. However, given that all the negative data are out at Q1 – market expectation is a slow and gradual pick up in Q2 and Q3. We remain steadfast with the same outlook that dollar is on a corrective rally here but the long term bull remains and could pick momentum in the 2^nd half of 2015.

Expect a tight range trading as the market look to digest FOMC meeting minutes. Gold could whipsaw between 1211 to 1203 area. Breaks below 1203 then look for support at 1198 and 1193 as the last line of defence. Pullback on gold is a buy and our weekly commentary on “Build in May & Go Away” stands for now.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action (updated).

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous high at 1232.31
• 8% Fib from Jan High to Mar Low at 1245.13
• 6% Fib at 1211.60 Mar Low to May High
• DMAs 200 at 1217 / 100 at 1211.98
• Previous low at 1210.80

Daily Support Levels:

• 2% 1198.74
• Several key DMA 50 at 1192.92 and 20 at 1198.47

On the shorter time frame, Silver price action is clinging on key ma levels and at the time of writing, we have the hourly chart finding support at 200 ma at 16.96 then the 4 hourly chart at 50 ma. However, we cannot rule out that Silver could break lower again to find support and level such as 16.40 -16.60 is a fertile area. On the daily, those levels hold the 50% and 61.8 Fib retracement area which should provide decent support. This also coincides with the rising orange channel line that should keep the run higher intact for now.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous daily high at 17.75
• Psychological level at 18.00
• Downtrend line that coincide with 18.00

Daily Support Levels:

• Several key DMA levels with 200 at 17.00 / 100 at 16.62 / 20 at 16.55
• Apr Low to May High Fib retracement level at 16.92 / 16.56 / 16.41

Pullback was impulsive but platinum managed to find support at 50% Fib retracement level at 1148.7. The rebound is rather lacklustre; same applies to Gold and Silver which throw many question if this pullback is temporary or here to stay. We are building a small long at the 50% Fib but will not discount out that Platinum could retest lower before it can continue its rally. The daily chart shows that this pullback on the breakout level is healthy and should we get layer of support here then the bull may have enough momentum to break higher again.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 1177.1
• 100 dma at 1177.87

Daily Support levels:

• Several DMAs 20 at 1144 / 50 at 1142
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 1155 / 50% at 1148.7

All the daily moving averages are converging between 770-790 levels and recent price action has found support once again at 770-775 levels. This congested area also contains 38.2% Fib retracement and the rising channel (shaded yellow) could give further support. Only a break above 801.6 will allow the bulls to take full control and take the price up beyond 820 levels.

At the moment, a pullback here is healthy but any support should have a follow up buying in order to maintain this bullish momentum. A break below 770 could target 763 and 745-755 support zone.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
• 200 dma at 796.31
• Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

• DMAs 100 at 780.76 / 20 at 779.97 and 50 at 772.23
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3

Precious Bull still Intact – Daily Technical View 19th May

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

Good day to all readers! We discussed last week on several grounds what we envisaged may happen in the precious metal world. The US dollar index has a bullish RSI divergence and it managed to carve out a bottom – giving way to the long awaited dead cat bounce. Gold look exhausted but Friday close above 1224.50 gave momentum for a test for higher as market opens on Monday 18^th May.

5 green candles in gold further add the indication that we may have exhaustion around the corner and a healthy pullback is needed to carve out a wave 4. It has been a spectacular run from the bottom of 1178 to 1232, which is equivalent to 54 points. Should the price retrace by 50% then 1205 levels is a potential zone to reload long positions for a rally to wave 5.

Pullback on gold is a buy and our weekly commentary on “Build in May & Go Away” stands for now.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous high at 1232.31
• 8% Fib from Jan High to Mar Low at 1245.13
• Confluence zone at 1245 and if Gold can clear this then higher prices is expected

Daily Support Levels:

• 6% Fib at 1211.60 Mar Low to May High
• 2% 1198.74
• Several key DMAs 200 at 1217 / 100 at 1211.98 / 50 at 1192.92 and 20 at 1198.47
• Previous low at 1210.80

At the time of writing, the daily candlestick is a bearish engulfing one but we expect it to retrace higher before another sell off. This would be data dependant and we could get further momentum on the back of US Data in the form of Building Permits. US dollar corrective rally will find any scraps of data to work in their favour today after heavy selling for the last 2 weeks.

To highlight the commentary we made last Friday “Having taken out 17.45 which was resistance, Silver bulls opened up the possibility to target 17.80 and even the 18.00 area”. We were sellers at 17.50-17.60 levels as a corrective pullback in Silver is much needed so as to test and build for strong support to then rally higher. Please take note that our short positions is risky and we maintain the outlook to build long positions should we see the pullback materialise to 16.70 – 17.00 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

• Previous daily high at 17.75
• Psychological level at 18.00
• Downtrend line that coincide with 18.00

Daily Support Levels:

• Several key DMA levels with 200 at 17.00 / 100 at 16.62 / 20 at 16.55
• Apr Low to May High Fib retracement level at 17.24 / 16.92 / 16.56 / 16.41

As per the commentary made last Friday, the 100 dma is a strong resistance for now. The rally has stalled and no surprise that a pullback here is rather healthy. We will look and wait for the pullback to fully materialise before entering a long trade.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 1177.1
• 100 dma at 1177.87

Daily Support levels:

• Several DMAs 20 at 1144 / 50 at 1142
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 1155 / 50% at 1148.7

Palladium price action is still trading well above the 20, 50 and 100 dma and still within the rising channel – thus indicating further upside is still in store. However, the upside has been capped by the weekly downtrend line (shaded brown) and that could continue to be a strong resistance level. We also have the 200 dma in that confluence zone (796) which gave sellers the incentive to short. Only a break above 801.6 will allow the bulls to take full control and take the price up beyond 820 levels.

At the moment, a pullback here is healthy but any support should have a follow up buying in order to main this bullish momentum. The last line of defence for the bull is around 770 to 775 levels and a break below that could spell trouble.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

• Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
• 200 dma at 796.31
• Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

• Several DMAs 100 at 780.76 / 20 at 779.97 and 50 at 772.23
• Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3